Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwamanje emhlabeni jikelele kuphezulu, futhi kunzima ukuphela ngesikhathi esifushane, okuzoba indawo enkulu yangaphandle ebhekene nemakethe yensimbi yaseChina esikhathini esizayo.Nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali okuqinile kuzonciphisa isidingo sensimbi emhlabeni wonke, kuzophinde kudaleke amathuba abalulekile emakethe yensimbi yaseShayina. Okokuqala, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphakeme emhlabeni wonke kuzoba isimo somnotho sangaphandle esikhulu kunazo zonke esibhekene nemakethe yensimbi yaseChina esikhathini esizayo.
Isimo sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni simuncu.Ngokwemininingwane ekhishwe yiBhange Lomhlaba nezinye izikhungo nezinhlangano, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi libe cishe ku-8% ngo-2022, cishe ngamaphesenti amane ngaphezu kwezinga langonyaka odlule.Ngo-2022, ukwehla kwamandla emali emazweni athuthukile kwakusondele ku-7%, okuyisibalo esiphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-1982. Ukwehla kwamandla emali emazweni asathuthuka kwezomnotho kungase kufinyelele kumaphesenti angu-10, okuyinani eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-2008. Okwamanje, ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke akuzange kubonise izimpawu zokwehla futhi kungenzeka ziba zimbi kakhulu ngenxa yezici eziningana.Muva nje, uPowell, usihlalo we-Federal Reserve, noLagarde, umongameli we-European Central Bank, bavumile ukuthi inkathi entsha yokwehla kwamandla emali iyeza, futhi ingase ingabuyeli esimweni esidlule sokwehla kwamandla emali.Kungabonakala ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali okusezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele kuzoba yindawo enkulu yezomnotho yangaphandle ebhekene nemakethe yensimbi yaseChina esikhathini esizayo.
Okwesibili, ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele, kuzonciphisa isidingo sensimbi esiphelele
Ukwehla kwamandla emali okwandayo emhlabeni jikelele nakanjani kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu ekukhuleni komnotho wezwe, okubangele ukwanda kwengozi yokuwohloka komnotho womhlaba.IBhange Lomhlaba kanye nezinye izikhungo nezinhlangano zibikezela ukuthi izinga lokukhula komnotho emhlabeni wonke ngo-2022 lizoba ngamaphesenti angu-2.9 kuphela, ngamaphesenti angu-2.8 ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angu-5.7 wangonyaka odlule.Izinga lokukhula lamazwe athuthukile lehle ngamaphesenti angu-1.2 kanye nelamazwe athuthukayo kwezomnotho ngamaphesenti angu-3.5.Akugcini lapho, ukukhula komhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle eminyakeni ezayo, lapho umnotho wase-US wehla wafinyelela ku-2.5% ngo-2022 (usuka ku-5.7% ngo-2021), u-1.2% ngo-2023, futhi ngokunokwenzeka ube ngaphansi kwe-1% ngo-2024.
Ukukhula komnotho womhlaba wonke kwehle kakhulu, futhi kungase kube nokuwohloka komnotho okugcwele, okwenza buthaka isidingo sensimbi sisonke.Akukhona lokho kuphela, amanani ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, kodwa futhi enza imali engenayo kazwelonke inciphe, inqande isidingo sabo sabathengi.Kulokhu, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi yaseShayina kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi okungaqondile okuyingxenye enkulu yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuzothinteka.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuwohloka kwemvelo yesidingo sangaphandle, kuzophinde kugqugquzele izinga lokuthatha izinqumo laseShayina lemizamo yokulungisa i-countertrend, kuqhubeke kwandise isidingo sasekhaya, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukukhula kwesidingo esiphelele endaweni enengqondo, ukuze isidingo sensimbi saseChina sizokwenza. kuncike kakhulu ekufuneni kwasekhaya, isidingo esiphelele sensimbi sizoba sobala kakhulu.
Okwesithathu, isimo esibucayi sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke, sizokhiqiza namathuba emakethe yensimbi yaseChina
Kufanele futhi kuphawulwe ukuthi isimo esibucayi sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke, esidingweni sesisonke sensimbi yaseChina, akuzona zonke izici ezingezinhle, akhona namathuba ezimakethe.Ekuhlaziyeni kokuqala, kukhona okungenani amathuba amabili.
Okokuqala, i-US kungenzeka inciphise intela yokungenisa impahla yaseShayina.Isizinda sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke namuhla yi-United States.Ukwehla kwamandla emali kubathengi bethu kukhuphuke ngokungalindelekile kwafinyelela phezulu eminyakeni engu-40 ngamaphesenti angu-8.6 ngoMeyi.Izazi zezomnotho zixwayisa ngokuthi i-inflation yase-US izokhuphuka kakhulu, mhlawumbe ifinyelele kumaphesenti angu-9.Isici esibalulekile esiqhubekisela phambili izinga lentengo eliphezulu e-US sisesikhathini sokulwa nokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke kukahulumeni wase-US, owabeka inani elikhulu lentela ezimpahleni zaseShayina, okwandisa izindleko zokungenisa.Ukuze kufezeke lokho, abaphathi beBiden njengamanje basebenzela ukuchibiyela amanani entengo yesigaba 301 ezimpahleni zaseChina, kanye nezinqubo zokukhulula lezo zindleko emikhiqizweni ethile, emzamweni wokususa enye ingcindezi ekhuphukayo emananini.Lesi yisithiyo esingagwemeki sokuthi i-US ilawule ukwehla kwamandla emali.Uma ezinye izintela zokuthekelisa eziya e-US zehliswa, ngokwemvelo zizozuzisa ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kwe-China, ikakhulukazi ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi engaqondile.
Okwesibili, umphumela wokushintshaniswa kwezimpahla zaseShayina uqinisiwe.Emhlabeni namuhla, izimpahla ezishibhile nezisezingeni eliphezulu zivela e-China, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngoba isimo esiwumqedazwe e-China sithuthuke kakhulu, futhi i-chain chain ye-China inokwethenjelwa kakhulu.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amaketanga ezinsiza ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba athintwe kakhulu ukuqubuka kwempi phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine.Ukushoda kwempahla nakho kuyisici esikhulu esithinta ukukhuphuka kwentengo, okuphinde kuqinise umphumela wokushintshaniswa kwezimpahla zaseShayina emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, okuvuna kakhulu ukusebenza kwezimboni zomhlaba zaseShayina.Yingakho ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zaseShayina kwamanye amazwe, okuhlanganisa nokuthunyelwa kwensimbi okungaqondile kwamanye amazwe, kusalokhu kuqinile naphezu kokuba isimo sangaphandle siya siba sibi kulo nyaka.Isibonelo, ngoMeyi kulo nyaka, inani eliphelele lokungenisa nokuthekelisa kwe-China lenyuke ngo-9.6% unyaka nonyaka kanye no-9.2% inyanga nenyanga ngokulandelana.Ikakhulukazi, ukungenisa nokuthekelisa ngaphandle kwesifunda soMfula iYangtze kukhuphuke cishe ngo-20% inyanga nenyanga uma kuqhathaniswa no-April, futhi ukungenisa nokuthekelisa kwe-Shanghai nezinye izifunda kwalulama kakhulu.Ekuthunyelweni kwezimpahla emazweni angaphandle, inani lemikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi emazweni angaphandle likhuphuke ngo-7% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zalo nyaka, okubalelwa ku-57.2% yenani eliphelele lokuthumela ngaphandle.Ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto kwamanye amazwe kufinyelele kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-119.05, okukhuphuke ngo-57.6%.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokwezibalo, ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zokuthengiswa kwe-excavator kazwelonke kwehle ngo-39.1% unyaka nonyaka, kodwa umthamo wokuthekelisa ukhuphuke ngo-75.7% unyaka nonyaka.Konke lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi engaqondile eChina kuyaqhubeka nokuba namandla, kungcono kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, njengoba isidingo somhlaba sokuthengwa kweChina sikhuphuka ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo emhlabeni.Kulindeleke ukuthi njengoba izinga lentengo emhlabeni lilokhu liphezulu noma likhuphuka nakakhulu, ukuncika kwawo wonke amazwe emhlabeni, ikakhulukazi amazwe ase-Europe neMelika, ezimpahleni zaseShayina okuhlanganisa nemikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi kuzokhula.Lokhu kuzokwenza futhi ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kwe-China, ikakhulukazi ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe okungaqondile, kuqine kakhulu, iphethini enamandla nakakhulu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-14-2022